Unemployment problems have intensified especially during the coronavirus pandemic. In many countries, enterprises and institutions were forced to reduce the number of employees due to the pandemic. This, in turn, increased the army of the unemployed and led to social conflicts between the government and the people. To stabilize the situation, it becomes necessary to predict the unemployment rate and take appropriate measures. To resolve the contradiction associated with the conflict between the government and the people and the increase in unemployment due to the pandemic, a predictive model has been proposed that makes it possible to forecast the unemployment rate by the employment indicators. Practical findings have been drawn about the need to take measures to stabilize the situation at the country level, including a system of incentives for small and medium-sized businesses with the foreign investors’ involvement. The proposed measures should provide significant assistance in reducing unemployment.
economic crisis, declining employment, unemployment, extrapolation methods, moving average method, exponential smoothing method, least squares method
1. Bulatov, A. S. Economics / A.S. Bulatov. – M .: Pub-lishing house BEK. – 2001. – 894 p.
2. Kyrgyzstan in figures. – Bishkek : statistical collection. – 2020. – 334 p.
3. Novikova, N. V. Forecasting the National Economy / N. V. Novikova, O. G. Pozdeeva. – Yekaterinburg: Publishing house of Ural State Economic University. – 2007. – 138 p.
4. Serova, E. Alternative Employment in Rural Areas of Russia. – M .: Institute for the Economy in Transition. – 2006. – 72 p.
5. Subanov, T. T. Forecasting the Unemployment Level in Kyrgyzstan in the Light of Solving Urgent Problems of Employing Graduates of Vocational Educational Institutions / T. T. Subanov, K. B. Koshuyeva // Izvestiya VUZov Kyrgyzstana. – 2019. – no. 4. – pp. 15-20
6. Financial portal “Akchabar”. – Available at: https://www.akchabar.kg (date of access 07 May 2020).