An Integrative Model of Managing Social Uncertainty: Group Identification, Perplexity, and Zipf’s Law

Aleksandr Bulgakov

doi:10.30987/2658-4026-2026-3-326-338

UDC 159.9

AN INTEGRATIVE MODEL OF MANAGING SOCIAL UNCERTAINTY: GROUP IDENTIFICATION, PERPLEXITY, AND ZIPF’S LAW An Integrative Model of Managing Social Uncertainty: Group Identification, Perplexity, and Zipf’s Law

АА Аа

Published in Ergodesign · Volume 2026, Issue 3 · Pages 326–338 · Rubric: COGNITIVE MODELING

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30987/2658-4026-2026-3-326-338

Received: 11.06.2026 Accepted: 26.06.2026 Published: 30.09.2026

Authors

Aleksandr Bulgakov

ORCID Scopus SPIN

Aleksandr Bulgakov

Academic degree: doctor of psychological sciences

Science rang: professor

Moskovskiy universitet MVD Rossii imeni V.Ya. Kikotya professor · Russian Federation

ORCID Scopus SPIN

ABSTRACT

The aim of the article is to develop a model integrating the concepts of group identification, socio-managerial perplexity, and Zipf’s law for diagnosing organizational climate in closed institutional systems. The methods include theoretical analysis, construct operationalization, and the development of metrics, including the Zipf deviation index (δZipf), the situational perplexity scale SPC-12, and the integrated CPI-balance index. The results show building an integrative CPI model to describe mechanisms by which information entropy influences the behavioural strategies of subjects in hierarchical systems; formulating four hypotheses for empirical testing, and defining methods for their verification. The findings state that perplexity may be regarded as a manageable parameter of a social system, whose dynamics are mediated by the regularities of information distribution and compensatory mechanisms of group identification. The proposed model has heuristic value for optimizing managerial communication in departmental educational organizations.

KEYWORDS

group identification, perplexity, Zipf’s law, information entropy, educational management, departmental universities, organizational behaviour

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Editor-in-chief

Valeriy Spasennikov

spas1956@mail.ru

Deputy chief editor

Aleksandr Kuz'menko

alex-rf-32@yandex.ru

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GOST

Bulgakov A. V. An Integrative Model of Managing Social Uncertainty: Group Identification, Perplexity, and Zipf’s Law // Ergodesign. 2026. no. 3. pp. 326-338. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30987/2658-4026-2026-3-326-338. (Date of access 02.10.2026).

MLA

Aleksandr Bulgakov. "An Integrative Model of Managing Social Uncertainty: Group Identification, Perplexity, and Zipf’s Law." Ergodesign 2026.3 (2026): 326-338. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30987/2658-4026-2026-3-326-338.

APA

Bulgakov A. V. (2026). An Integrative Model of Managing Social Uncertainty: Group Identification, Perplexity, and Zipf’s Law. Ergodesign, 2026(3), 326-338. https://doi.org/10.30987/2658-4026-2026-3-326-338

Chicago

Aleksandr Bulgakov. "An Integrative Model of Managing Social Uncertainty: Group Identification, Perplexity, and Zipf’s Law." Ergodesign 2026, no. 3 (2026): 326-338. https://doi.org/10.30987/2658-4026-2026-3-326-338.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Bulgakov A. V. | title = An Integrative Model of Managing Social Uncertainty: Group Identification, Perplexity, and Zipf’s Law | journal = Ergodesign | year = 2026 | volume = 2026 | issue = 3 | pages = 326-338 | doi = 10.30987/2658-4026-2026-3-326-338 }}

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AN INTEGRATIVE MODEL OF MANAGING SOCIAL UNCERTAINTY: GROUP IDENTIFICATION, PERPLEXITY, AND ZIPF’S LAW An Integrative Model of Managing Social Uncertainty: Group Identification, Perplexity, and Zipf’s Law

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