This work is devoted to developing a generalized model for forming shipping routes in the waters of the Arctic seas. The research theme is related to solving the strategic task of providing a year-round navigation in the waters of the Northern Sea Route. The characteristics of the navigation-hydrographic and ice conditions for performing the maritime Arctic transport system are given. The article presents the main indicators characterizing the volume of cargo transportation carried out along the routes of the Northern Sea Route in 2021 and the number of ships operating in the water area. The main factors influencing the network development of year-round shipping routes are determined. An analytical review of known models and methods for assessing navigational risks are carried out. A list of the main factors of navigational risks is established. A generalized model is proposed for joint considering the influence of shallow depths, ice conditions and tightness of the water area on the navigation safety. The main formulae, correlations and limitations of the model, as well as generalized and particular criteria for indicators of navigational safety are given. The results of checking the model performance are presented. The possibility of a year-round navigation of two-type large-capacity vessels in the Sannikov Strait is considered. Applying the model makes it possible to perform a comparative assessment of the ship navigation routes according to the generalized criterion of navigational safety and particular criteria. A technique is developed for the practical use of the proposed model to solve the problems of ensuring safe navigation in the conditions of extended and a year-round navigation in the waters of the Northern Sea Route. The article outlines the ways of further research
northern sea route, shipping routes, model, year-round navigation
1. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 3120-p. “Infrastructure Development Plan for the Northern Sea Route for the Period up to 2035” [Internet]. 2019 Dec 21 [cited 2022 Mar 18]. Available from: http://government.ru/docs/38714//
2. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 645 “On the Strategy for the Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and Ensuring National Security for the Period until 2035” [Internet]. 2020 Oct 26 [cited 2022 Mar 19]. Available from: https://base.garant.ru/74810556//
3. Reshetnyak S.V., Tezikov A.L. Efficiency Increasing Method of Hydrographic Survey of Northern Sea Route Highlatitude Paths. Geodesy and Cartography. 2011;6:45-49.
4. Reshetnyak S.V., Tezikov A.L. Northern Seaway. Numerical Evaluation of the Hydrographic Provision of Routes for High Draught Vessels. Geodesy and Cartography. 2008;6:59-61.
5. Korolev I.Yu. Evaluation of the Tolerance Path of the Vessel from the Surveyed Strip. Vestnik gosudarstvennogo universiteta morskogo i rechnogo flota imeni admirala S.O. Makarova. 2016;6(40):105-112. doi:https://doi.org/10.21821/2309-5180-2016-8-6-105-112.
6. Snopkov V.I. Ship Handling. St. Petersburg: ANO NPO “Professional”; 2004.
7. Sazonov K.E. Theoretical Basis for Ship Navigation on Ice. Saint Petersburg: Krylov Shipbuilding Research Institute; 2010.
8. Klyuev V.V. Quantitative Assessment of Constraint of the Northern Sea Route. Vestnik gosudarstvennogo universiteta morskogo i rechnogo flota imeni admirala S.O. Makarova. 2016;5(39):109-117. doi:https://doi.org/10.21821/2309-5180-2016-8-5-109-117.
9. Klyuev V.V. Formalization of the Safety Assessment of Routes of the Northern Sea Route. Vestnik gosudarstvennogo universiteta morskogo i rechnogo flota imeni admirala S.O. Makarova. 2016;4(38):69-74. doi:https://doi.org/10.21821/2309-5180-2016-8-4-69-74.
10. Tezikov A., Afonin A., Kljuev V. Research of quantitative indicators of tightness of the northern sea route (NSR) // Proceedings of the International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering Under Arctic Conditions. - Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions (POAC), 2017.
11. Afonin A.B., Ol'khovik E.O., Tezikov A.L. Influence of the bottom relief on the formation of the navigable routes network in the water area of the Northern Sea Route // IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 2019. Vol. 378. № 1. P. 012003.
12. ND No. 2 020101 104. Part 1. Rules for the Classification and Construction of Sea Vessels. Saint Petersburg: Russian Maritime Register of Shipping; 2018.
13. Ershov A.A., Mikhnevich A.V. The Use of Characteristics of Maneuvering to Ensure the Safety of Vessel Traffic in the Narrows. Vestnik gosudarstvennogo universiteta morskogo i rechnogo flota imeni admirala S.O. Makarova. 2018;10(5):897-910. doi:https://doi.org/10.21821/2309-5180-2018-10-5-897-910.
14. Afonin A.B., Olkhovik E.O., Tezikov A.L. Development of the Assessment of Anadromous Depths on the Northern Sea Route, Depending on the Detail of Survey of the Bottom Relief. Vestnik gosudarstvennogo universiteta morskogo i rechnogo flota imeni admirala S.O. Makarova. 2016;4(38):62-68. doi:https://doi.org/10.21821/2309-5180-2016-8-4-62-68
15. Andreeva E.V., Tezikov A.L. Formalization of the Constraint Indicator of the Northern Sea Route Water Area. Vestnik gosudarstvennogo universiteta morskogo i rechnogo flota imeni admirala S.O. Makarova. 2022;1(71):55-62. doi:https://doi.org/10.21821/2309-5180-2022-14-1-55-62
16. Kholoptsev A.V., Podporin S.A. Prospects for Unescorted Navigation of Transit Vessels in the Region of the New Siberian Islands. Vestnik gosudarstvennogo universiteta morskogo i rechnogo flota imeni admirala S.O. Makarova. 2019;11(4):683-695. doi:https://doi.org/10.21821/2309-5180-2019-11-4-683-695
